Observe, Reflect, Adapt
GeaRinG UP foR RaPiD HaBitat CHanGe
By Winifred B. Kessler, Ph.D.
Credit: Ray Massey
Winifred B. Kessler,
Ph.D., is Director of
Wildlife, Fisheries,
Ecology, Watershed,
and Subsistence
Management for the
USDA Forest Service
Alaska Region.
A decade ago my family lived on the forested rural land we own in central British Columbia. For as long as the locals could remember this
was “moose country,” that species a mainstay of rural
livelihoods. In 2000 we took jobs in Juneau, Alaska,
returning to our B.C. home only once or twice a year.
Each visit brought new surprises. By 2005 deer and
elk had moved in, establishing populations sufficient
enough for managers to implement hunting seasons.
First-ever reports of cougar activity soon followed.
Along the 720-kilometer stretch of Highway 16
between Prince Rupert and Prince George, warning
signs for deer and elk popped up where before only
moose had strayed into the roadway.
What drove such rapid changes? A tiny beetle.
Warmer winters have given mountain pine beetles a
reproductive edge that has so far led to the death of
pine trees over 13 million hectares of B.C. forests. The
rapid opening up of previously dense forests created
abundant habitat for deer, elk, and cougars where
before there had been little.
In recent months wildlife professionals have hotly
debated whether or not wildlife species will adapt
quickly enough to survive these climate-induced
changes. But it’s not just wildlife that needs to adapt.
As beetles invade, fires rage hotter, storms grow more
intense, and wildlife communities shift, I wonder
whether wildlife professionals and the conservation
policies we rely upon will adapt quickly enough to
meet the challenges ahead.
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The astoundingly fast environmental changes that I
have witnessed firsthand show us that long-trusted
approaches to habitat management may not fit emerging needs. The concept of historic range of variation
(HRV), for example, whereby desired habitat conditions are construed from historical data, has guided
the planning of habitat restoration, mitigation, and
conservation strategies at landscape scales. Though
HRV takes into account plant and animal community dynamics, the patterns of variation reflect past
ranges of environmental conditions that—according
to climate change scenarios—may no longer exist.
Conceptually, the variable-range targets we’ve aimed
for are being replaced by moving targets. This cre-
ates unprecedented levels of uncertainty in the most
fundamental question facing habitat managers and
conservation planners: “What should we manage for?”
I’ve come to realize that policies that have served
well in the past are based on assumptions that do not
reflect important realities ahead. Take the Endangered Species Act (ESA). During my career the ESA
has been cause for celebration—consider the delisting of the grizzly bear, bald eagle, and gray wolf—as
well as disappointment, such as the near extinction
of the Attwater’s greater prairie chicken, the object of
my doctoral work. The assumption underlying both
the ESA and its Canadian analog, the Species at Risk
Act, is that threats to listed species can be controlled
through timely management actions. Yet climate
change challenges this assumption, as the effects of
warming on habitat may be impossible to mitigate in
time to save some species. This conundrum, of course,
is at the heart of thorny issues such as the listing of
the polar bear and other arctic species. Whether or
not their icy habitat is designated as critical under
law, it continues to melt away.
I’ll close by suggesting three ways that wildlifers can
prepare for the challenges ahead. First, gear your
mind for rapid, punctuated habitat change that seems
at odds with the conventional models of community
succession (gradual, linear change) you probably cut
your professional teeth on.
Second, recognize that habitat planning frameworks
based on historic conditions or the status quo are not
suited for the new challenges that lie ahead. Bold and
creative thinking is required if new strategies for adaptation and mitigation are to materialize in practical
form, and in time to be effective.
Finally, accept that some threats to imperiled species
are within our ability to meaningfully influence, but
many others—including rapid changes in habitat
associated with a warming climate—are not. Don’t
mistake acceptance for inaction. Choices about the
investment of scarce conservation dollars are policy-driven. It’s time to work on adaptation strategies for
policies that came into being in a more environmentally stable world.
